Authors
António Afonso, Peter Claeys, Ricardo M Sousa
Publication date
2011/8
Journal
Portuguese Economic Journal
Volume
10
Issue
2
Pages
83-108
Publisher
Springer-Verlag
Description
We estimate changes in fiscal policy regimes in Portugal with a Markov Switching regression of fiscal policy rules for the period 1978–2007, using a new dataset of fiscal quarterly series. We find evidence of a deficit bias, while repeated reversals of taxes making the budget procyclical. Economic booms have typically been used to relax tax pressure, especially during elections. One-off measures have been preferred over structural ones to contain the deficit during economic crises. The EU fiscal framework prompted temporary consolidation, but did not permanently change the budgeting process.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
A Afonso, P Claeys, RM Sousa - Portuguese Economic Journal, 2011