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Soil moisture is a key hydrologic variable that determines peat flammability and predicts burned area. In recent decades, there has been a rise in deadly peat fires across Southeast Asia, indicating the presence of dry conditions. This has largely been attributed to the extensive deforestation, drainage, and conversion to agricultural use that has occurred in the region. Climate also plays a role in mediating soil moisture, and the most severe fire years have previously only occurred when there are droughts during strong El Niño years. Thus, climate change threatens drier peat soil moisture conditions which would increase peat fire risk. Here, we assess these potential impacts by modeling soil moisture responses to predicted climate change. To overcome the lack of regional-scale data for hydrologic variables and peat properties necessary to parametrize a physical model, we used for a statistical modeling approach …