Authors
David Bauder, Taras Bodnar, Nestor Parolya, Wolfgang Schmid
Publication date
2021/2/1
Journal
Quantitative Finance
Volume
21
Issue
2
Pages
221-242
Publisher
Routledge
Description
The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, for example the mean vector and the covariance matrix, are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data on asset returns. Our new approach employs the Bayesian posterior predictive distribution which is the distribution of future realizations of asset returns given the observable sample. The parameters of posterior predictive distributions are functions of the observed data values and, consequently, the solution of the optimization problem is expressed in terms of data only and does not depend on unknown quantities. By contrast, the optimization problem of the traditional approach is based on unknown quantities which are estimated in the second step, and lead to a suboptimal solution. We also derive a very useful stochastic representation of the posterior predictive distribution whose …
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