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Workers’ compensation systems throughout Australia implement “step-downs,” which cut the amount paid to injured workers after they have received benefits for several months. Though initially introduced to control rising insurance premiums, step-downs are currently justified as an incentive return to work. Whether they have this effect has never been formally tested.

Using administrative claims data, we applied a regression discontinuity study design to test whether step-downs affected weekly scheme exit rates, a proxy for return to work, within eight state, territory, and Commonwealth workers’ compensation systems. We also examined effects by injury type (fractures, musculoskeletal, mental health, and other trauma). To derive generalised effects, we combined results using meta-analyses and conducted meta-regressions to determine whether timing or magnitude of step-downs significantly …