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Aims (1) To define the physical correlates of indigenous forest in KwaZulu‐Natal province and develop a model, based on climatic parameters, to predict the potential distribution of forest subtypes in the province. (2) To explore the impact of palaeoclimatic change on forest distribution, providing an insight into the regional‐scale/historical forces shaping the pattern and composition of present‐day forest communities. (3) To investigate potential future shifts in forest distribution associated with projected climate change.

Location KwaZulu‐Natal province, South Africa.

Methods A BIOCLIM‐type approach is adopted. Bioclimatic ‘profiles’ for eight different forest subtypes are defined from a series of grid overlays of current forest distribution against nineteen climatic and geographical variables, using ArcInfo GIS grid‐based processing. A principal components analysis is performed on a selection of individual forests to …