Autoren
Steffen Lauf, Dagmar Haase, Patrick Hostert, Tobia Lakes, Birgit Kleinschmit
Publikationsdatum
2012/1/1
Zeitschrift
Environmental Modelling & Software
Band
27
Seiten
71-82
Verlag
Elsevier
Beschreibung
This paper introduces an enhancement of a cellular automata (CA) model by integrating system dynamics (SD) to incorporate household dynamics and housing decisions as driving forces of residential development. CA macro-models used to simulate the quantitative land-use change (LUC) for urban areas are, thus far, lacking profound dynamics driven by demographic change. The model presented in this paper focuses on household dynamics according to the concept of the second demographic transition (SDT), applying aging and population shrinkage to simulate respective effects on residential choice and the resulting LUC. Such a perspective becomes especially important for urban areas exhibiting growth and shrinkage simultaneously, as currently seen in cities in Europe and in the U.S. To analyze this simultaneity in detail, we implement the residential land use CA model Metronamica and apply it to Berlin …
Zitate insgesamt
2012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024913131511101791513171011