Authors
Sjoukje Y Philip, Sarah F Kew, Geert Jan Van Oldenborgh, Faron S Anslow, Sonia I Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten Van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S Tradowsky, Gabriel A Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B Stull, Rosie Howard, Friederike EL Otto
Publication date
2022/12/8
Journal
Earth System Dynamics
Volume
13
Issue
4
Pages
1689-1713
Publisher
Copernicus Publications
Description
Towards the end of June 2021, temperature records were broken by several degrees Celsius in several cities in the Pacific Northwest areas of the US and Canada, leading to spikes in sudden deaths and sharp increases in emergency calls and hospital visits for heat-related illnesses. Here we present a multi-model, multi-method attribution analysis to investigate the extent to which human-induced climate change has influenced the probability and intensity of extreme heat waves in this region. Based on observations, modelling and a classical statistical approach, the occurrence of a heat wave defined as the maximum daily temperature (TXx) observed in the area 45–52 N, 119–123 W, was found to be virtually impossible without human-caused climate change. The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lay far outside the range of historical temperature observations. This makes it hard to state with confidence how rare the event was. Using a statistical analysis that assumes that the heat wave is part of the same distribution as previous heat waves in this region led to a first-order estimation of the event frequency of the order of once in 1000 years under current climate conditions. Using this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, we found that such a heat wave event would be at least 150 times less common without human-induced climate change. Also, this heat wave was about 2 C hotter than a 1-in-1000-year heat wave would have been in 1850–1900, when global mean temperatures were 1.2 C cooler than today. Looking into the future, in a world with 2 C of …
Total citations
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