Authors
António Afonso, Davide Furceri, Pedro Gomes
Publication date
2012/4/1
Journal
Journal of International Money and Finance
Volume
31
Issue
3
Pages
606-638
Publisher
Pergamon
Description
We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries.
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