Authors
Fiifi Amoako Johnson Md Sarwar Hossain John A Dearinga, Felix Eigenbrod
Publication date
2017
Journal
Science of The Total Environment
Pages
673–682
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
This study makes a first attempt to operationalize the safe operating space concept at a regional scale by considering the complex dynamics (e.g. non-linearity, feedbacks, and interactions) within a systems dynamic model (SD). We employ the model to explore eight ‘what if’ scenarios based on well-known challenges (e.g. climate change) and current policy debates (e.g. subsidy withdrawal). The findings show that the social-ecological system in the Bangladesh delta may move beyond a safe operating space when a withdrawal of a 50% subsidy for agriculture is combined with the effects of a 2 °C temperature increase and sea level rise. Further reductions in upstream river discharge in the Ganges would push the system towards a dangerous zone once a 3.5 °C temperature increase was reached. The social-ecological system in Bangladesh delta may be operated within a safe space by: 1) managing feedback (e.g …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
MS Hossain, JA Dearing, F Eigenbrod, FA Johnson - Science of the Total Environment, 2017