Authors
Sin Chan Chou, André Lyra, Caroline Mourão, Claudine Dereczynski, Isabel Pilotto, Jorge Gomes, Josiane Bustamante, Priscila Tavares, Adan Silva, Daniela Rodrigues, Diego Campos, Gustavo Sueiro, Gracielle Siqueira, Paulo Nobre, José Marengo, Diego Chagas
Publication date
2014/12/25
Journal
American Journal of Climate Change
Volume
3
Issue
05
Pages
438
Publisher
Scientific Research Publishing
Description
To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
SC Chou, A Lyra, C Mourão, C Dereczynski, I Pilotto… - American Journal of Climate Change, 2014