Authors
Boris Hofmann, Ilhyock Shim, Hyun Song Shin
Publication date
2022/2/6
Journal
Available at SSRN 4028446
Description
We lay out a model of risk capacity for global portfolio investors in which swings in exchange rates can affect their risk-taking capacity in a Value-at-Risk framework. Exchange rate fluctuations induce shifts in portfolio holdings of global investors, even in the absence of currency mismatches on the part of the borrowers. A currency appreciation for an emerging market borrower that is part of a broad-based appreciation of emerging market currencies leads to larger bond portfolio inflows than the equivalent appreciation in the absence of a broad-based appreciation. As such, the broad dollar index emerges as a global factor in bond portfolio flows. The empirical evidence strongly supports the predictions of the model.
Total citations
202220232024692
Scholar articles
B Hofmann, I Shim, HS Shin - Available at SSRN 4028446, 2022