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Carbon stocks in vegetation replacing forest in Brazilian Amazonia affect net emissions of greenhouse gases from land-use change. A Markov matrix of annual transition probabilities was constructed to estimate landscape composition in 1990 and to project future changes, assuming behavior of farmers and ranchers remains unchanged. The estimated 1990 landscape was 5.4% farmland, 44.8% productive pasture, 2.2% degraded pasture, 2.1% ‘young’ (1970 or later) secondary forest derived from agriculture, 28.1% ‘young’ secondary forest derived from pasture, and 17.4% ‘old’ (pre-1970) secondary forest. The landscape would eventually approach an equilibrium of 4.0% farmland, 43.8% productive pasture, 5.2% degraded pasture, 2.0% secondary forest derived from agriculture, and 44.9% secondary forest derived from pasture. An insignificant amount is regenerated ‘forest’ (defined as secondary forest over …