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Fires are a major hazard to forests in the Mediterranean region, where, on average, half a million hectares of forested areas are burned every year. The assessment of fire risk is therefore at the heart of fire prevention policies in the region. The estimation of forest fire risk often involves the integration of meteorological and other fuel‐related variables, leading to an index that assesses the different levels of risk. Two indices frequently used to estimate the level of fire risk are the Fire Weather Index (FWI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Although a correlation between the number of fires and the level of risk determined by these indices has been demonstrated in previous studies, the analyses focused on the changes in fire risk levels in areas where fires took place. The present study analyses the behaviour of the fire risk indices not only in areas where fires occurred but also in areas where fires …