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Understanding and predicting changes in the abundance of natural populations is a central goal of ecology. These changes are influenced by a variety of exogenous processes (weather, floods, fire); variation in these processes leads to variation in vital rates (survival, fecundity) that may be positively or negatively correlated across the life cycle. We used 20 years of data and a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate vital rates and their covariation in an endangered plant, Dicerandra frutescens ssp. frutescens (Lamiaceae), as a function of time since fire and random year effects. Germination and the number of flowering branches declined with time since fire, and all plants were increasingly likely to become nonreproductive with time since fire. Time since fire had negative effects on survival of seedlings, vegetative plants, and small flowering plants, and positive effects on survival of medium and large flowering …