Authors
David S Bates
Publication date
2009/4/23
Issue
w14913
Publisher
National Bureau of Economic Research
Description
This paper applies the Bates (RFS, 2006) methodology to the problem of estimating and filtering timechanged Lévy processes, using daily data on US stock market excess returns over 1926-2006. In contrast to density-based filtration approaches, the methodology recursively updates the associated conditional characteristic functions of the latent variables. The paper examines how well time-changed Lévy specifications capture stochastic volatility, the “leverage” effect, and the substantial outliers occasionally observed in stock market returns. The paper also finds that the autocorrelation of stock market excess returns varies substantially over time, necessitating an additional latent variable when analyzing historical data on stock market returns. The paper explores option pricing implications, and compares the results with observed prices of options on S&P 500 futures.
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