Authors
Ronald A Halim, Jan H Kwakkel, Lóránt A Tavasszy
Publication date
2016/8/1
Journal
Futures
Volume
81
Pages
148-160
Publisher
Pergamon
Description
The global container transport system is changing quickly. Ports can be severely affected by these changes; therefore, ports need insight into how the system might change and what the impact of this will be on their competitive position. Given the intrinsic complexity of the container transport system and the presence of a wide range of deeply uncertain factors affecting the system, we use an exploratory modeling approach to study future scenarios for the global container network. Using scenario discovery and worst-case discovery, we assess the implications of various uncertain factors on the competitive position of the port of Rotterdam. It is found that overall the competitive position of Rotterdam is quite robust with respect to the various uncertain factors. The main vulnerability is the quality of the hinterland connections. A modest deterioration of the quality of the hinterland connections, resulting in increased travel …
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