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No‐tillage cropping systems with direct seeding into a mulch of plant residues from cover crops – the so‐called direct seeding mulch‐based cropping (DMC) systems – have been adopted widely over the last 10–15 years in the Cerrado region of Brazil. They are replacing the traditional soybean monoculture with bare fallow using conventional tillage (CT) practices. The objective of this study was to examine how DMC practices affect soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics and to assess their potential for enhanced soil carbon (C) storage. The approach was to determine soil C stocks along a chronosequence of fields under DMC, and then to apply the generic decomposition and yield (G'DAY) plant–soil model to analyse the soil C storage potential for a number of cropping systems. Forty‐five fields were selected on a plateau of Ferralsols in the central Cerrado region to represent a chronosequence of 0–12 years …