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Both first-trimester screening and second-trimester screening for Down's syndrome are effective means of selecting women for chorionic-villus sampling or amniocentesis, but there is uncertainty about which screening method should be used in practice. We propose a new screening method in which measurements obtained during both trimesters are integrated to provide a single estimate of a woman's risk of having a pregnancy affected by Down's syndrome.

We used data from published studies of various screening methods employed during the first and second trimesters. The first-trimester screening consisted of measurement of serum pregnancy-associated plasma protein A in 77 pregnancies affected by Down's syndrome and 383 unaffected pregnancies and measurements of nuchal translucency obtained by ultrasonography in 326 affected and 95,476 unaffected pregnancies. The …