Authors
Fredrik Ronquist, Jan Kudlicka, Viktor Senderov, Johannes Borgström, Nicolas Lartillot, Daniel Lundén, Lawrence Murray, Thomas B Schön, David Broman
Publication date
2021/2/24
Journal
Communications biology
Volume
4
Issue
1
Pages
244
Publisher
Nature Publishing Group UK
Description
Statistical phylogenetic analysis currently relies on complex, dedicated software packages, making it difficult for evolutionary biologists to explore new models and inference strategies. Recent years have seen more generic solutions based on probabilistic graphical models, but this formalism can only partly express phylogenetic problems. Here, we show that universal probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) solve the expressivity problem, while still supporting automated generation of efficient inference algorithms. To prove the latter point, we develop automated generation of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms for PPL descriptions of arbitrary biological diversification (birth-death) models. SMC is a new inference strategy for these problems, supporting both parameter inference and efficient estimation of Bayes factors that are used in model testing. We take advantage of this in automatically generating …
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