Authors
Quanbao Jiang, Jesús J Sánchez-Barricarte
Publication date
2011/6
Journal
European journal of ageing
Volume
8
Pages
119-127
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Description
Concern about ensuring old-age support in 4-2-1 families—consisting of four older people (paternal and maternal grandparents), two parents, and only one child—has risen with the increase in the number of families with only one child. In this article, using life table data and probability theory, we examine survival probabilities and coexistence durations for China’s 4-2-1 family structure, as well as urban and rural differences and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We find that once the grandparents have all entered the “old-age” phase (over 60 years old), the probability that all four will survive is only 0.61. The four grandparents are likely to coexist for 16 years after the birth of their grandchild, then one will die and the remaining three will probably spend another 8 years together; finally, after another dies, the surviving two will coexist for another 5 years. There is no significant difference between urban and rural …
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