Authors
Engelbert Stockhammer, Giorgos Gouzoulis, Robert Calvert Jump
Publication date
2019/3
Source
Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES) Working Papers
Issue
PKWP1907
Description
Minsky (1975) proposed a theory of endogenous cycles that results from the interaction of real and financial variables. Minsky’s work has inspired a growing body of literature on theoretical business cycle models, but relatively little work has been done in the empirical field. In particular, while interest in financial cycles has risen significantly after the 2007-8 financial crash, and recent empirical studies have explored the impact of debt on aggregate demand or its effect on the probability of financial crises, the literature does not test for endogenous cycle mechanisms. In contrast, the present paper investigates econometrically whether or not business cycles are driven by corporate debt and/or by mortgage debt. We estimate simple vector autoregressive moving average (VARMA) models, using historical macroeconomic data for the USA (1889-2015) and the UK (1882-2010). We find robust evidence of endogenous corporate debt-driven cycles for the USA, weak evidence of mortgage debt-driven cycles in the USA and no evidence of corporate or mortgage debt-driven cycles for the UK.
Total citations
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