Authors
Sydney C Ludvigson, Sai Ma, Serena Ng
Publication date
2021/10/1
Journal
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
Volume
13
Issue
4
Pages
369-410
Publisher
American Economic Association
Description
Uncertainty about the future rises in recessions. But is uncertainty a source of business cycles or an endogenous response to them, and does the type of uncertainty matter? We propose a novel SVAR identification strategy to address these questions via inequality constraints on the structural shocks. We find that sharply higher macroeconomic uncertainty in recessions is often an endogenous response to output shocks, while uncertainty about financial markets is a likely source of output fluctuations. (JEL D81, E23, E32, E44, G14)
Total citations
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Scholar articles
SC Ludvigson, S Ma, S Ng - American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2021