Authors
Serena Ng, Pierre Perron
Publication date
2001/11
Journal
Econometrica
Volume
69
Issue
6
Pages
1519-1554
Publisher
Blackwell Publishers Ltd
Description
It is widely known that when there are errors with a moving‐average root close to −1, a high order augmented autoregression is necessary for unit root tests to have good size, but that information criteria such as the AIC and the BIC tend to select a truncation lag (k) that is very small. We consider a class of Modified Information Criteria (MIC) with a penalty factor that is sample dependent. It takes into account the fact that the bias in the sum of the autoregressive coefficients is highly dependent on k and adapts to the type of deterministic components present. We use a local asymptotic framework in which the moving‐average root is local to −1 to document how the MIC performs better in selecting appropriate values of k. In Monte‐Carlo experiments, the MIC is found to yield huge size improvements to the DFGLS and the feasible point optimal PT test developed in Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996). We also extend the …
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