Authors
Lynda E Chambers, Res Altwegg, Christophe Barbraud, Phoebe Barnard, Linda J Beaumont, Robert JM Crawford, Joel M Durant, Lesley Hughes, Marie R Keatley, Matt Low, Patricia C Morellato, Elvira S Poloczanska, Valeria Ruoppolo, Ralph ET Vanstreels, Eric J Woehler, Anton C Wolfaardt
Publication date
2013/10/1
Journal
PloS one
Volume
8
Issue
10
Pages
e75514
Publisher
Public Library of Science
Description
Current evidence of phenological responses to recent climate change is substantially biased towards northern hemisphere temperate regions. Given regional differences in climate change, shifts in phenology will not be uniform across the globe, and conclusions drawn from temperate systems in the northern hemisphere might not be applicable to other regions on the planet. We conduct the largest meta-analysis to date of phenological drivers and trends among southern hemisphere species, assessing 1208 long-term datasets from 89 studies on 347 species. Data were mostly from Australasia (Australia and New Zealand), South America and the Antarctic/subantarctic, and focused primarily on plants and birds. This meta-analysis shows an advance in the timing of spring events (with a strong Australian data bias), although substantial differences in trends were apparent among taxonomic groups and regions. When only statistically significant trends were considered, 82% of terrestrial datasets and 42% of marine datasets demonstrated an advance in phenology. Temperature was most frequently identified as the primary driver of phenological changes; however, in many studies it was the only climate variable considered. When precipitation was examined, it often played a key role but, in contrast with temperature, the direction of phenological shifts in response to precipitation variation was difficult to predict a priori. We discuss how phenological information can inform the adaptive capacity of species, their resilience, and constraints on autonomous adaptation. We also highlight serious weaknesses in past and current data collection and analyses at …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
LE Chambers, R Altwegg, C Barbraud, P Barnard… - PloS one, 2013