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The carbon neutrality goal is driving China to phase out its coal plants. However, the phase-out policies under extreme weather condition has led to severe electricity shortage. A reconsideration of coal power phase-out path is necessary to balance the demand of carbon neutrality, electricity security, and economic growth, including appropriate pace and direction. In order to explore the dynamic and non-linear impact on electricity balance, a hybrid model of system dynamics (SD) and Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) called SD-LEAP is proposed in this paper. The scenario simulation results shows the following implications: (1) Under the benchmark development (BD) scenario, electricity shortages may still exist before 2027 if China phases out coal plants at their 30-years technical lifespan. The estimated monthly electricity deficit may range from 6 to 12 billion kWh. (2) To reduce the electricity …