Authors
Erick Albacharro Chacón Montalván
Publication date
2019/8
Publisher
University of Lancaster
Description
Impacts of climate change on human health are a major concern for public health. Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme hydro-climatic events (floods and droughts) is one of the main characteristics of climate change. The occurrence of these events can drastically affect the lives of the population through different pathways. For example, by affecting accessibility to sufficient, safe and nutritious food (food security), increasing levels of malnutrition or increasing disease incidence. We hypothesize that nutrition might be a relevant pathway through which extreme hydro-climatic events affect human health and that the impacts are worse for vulnerable groups where they exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Then, to understand and evaluate the effects of extreme hydro-climatic events on human health, we developed three studies. First, we propose a model-based standardised index to identify and quantify extreme temporal events and compared it against the classical standardized precipitation index (SPI). We found that our index holds the properties of the SPI, but improves on the methodology by tackling some of its limitations. Second, we used the model-based standardised index to evaluate the effects of exposure to extreme hydro-climatic events during pregnancy on birth weight. We controlled for other social and placedbased factors that could influence birth weight and found out that floods could significantly reduce birth weight. We also detected characteristics of vulnerable groups where birthweight is expected to be lower. Finally, we proposed our denominated spatial item factor analysis to model and predict spatially structured latent …