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Well productivity reduction over time is one of the critical issues for deep-water wells with huge implications on expected recoveries from these wells. It is important to account for this uncertainty accurately in order to generate reliable production forecasts. Typically, reservoir simulation engineers utilize an expression (e.g. linear or exponential) for modeling changes in skin or Productivity Index (PI) over time as a function of either time or cumulative liquid production or pressure depletion. These commonly used single variable-based PI degradation modeling methods are easy to implement with a flow simulator, but they do not address the multi-dimensional nature of PI degradation which is a result of multiple subsurface effects combined with operational conditions. As a result, these single variable-based modeling methods generally do not have good reliability for predicting PI degradation trend.

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