Authors
Alan TK Wan, Xinyu Zhang, Shouyang Wang
Publication date
2014/1/1
Journal
International Journal of Forecasting
Volume
30
Issue
1
Pages
118-128
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
Multinomial and ordered Logit models are quantitative techniques which are used in a range of disciplines nowadays. When applying these techniques, practitioners usually select a single model using either information-based criteria or pretesting. In this paper, we consider the alternative strategy of combining models rather than selecting a single model. Our strategy of weight choice for the candidate models is based on the minimization of a plug-in estimator of the asymptotic squared error risk of the model average estimator. Theoretical justifications of this model averaging strategy are provided, and a Monte Carlo study shows that the forecasts produced by the proposed strategy are often more accurate than those produced by other common model selection and model averaging strategies, especially when the regressors are only mildly to moderately correlated and the true model contains few zero coefficients …
Total citations
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Scholar articles
ATK Wan, X Zhang, S Wang - International Journal of Forecasting, 2014