Authors
Rachel James, Richard Washington, Carl‐Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Declan Conway
Publication date
2017/3
Source
Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
Volume
8
Issue
2
Pages
e457
Publisher
John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Description
The Paris Agreement long‐term global temperature goal refers to two global warming levels: well below 2°C and 1.5°C above preindustrial. Regional climate signals at specific global warming levels, and especially the differences between 1.5°C and 2°C, are not well constrained, however. In particular, methodological challenges related to the assessment of such differences have received limited attention. This article reviews alternative approaches for identifying regional climate signals associated with global temperature limits, and evaluates the extent to which they constitute a sound basis for impacts analysis. Four methods are outlined, including comparing data from different greenhouse gas scenarios, sub‐selecting climate models based on global temperature response, pattern scaling, and extracting anomalies at the time of each global temperature increment. These methods have rarely been applied to …
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