Authors
Miguel A Carriquiry, Daniel E Osgood
Publication date
2012/3
Journal
Journal of Risk and Insurance
Volume
79
Issue
1
Pages
287-300
Publisher
Blackwell Publishing Inc
Description
Index insurance and probabilistic seasonal forecasts are becoming available in developing countries to help farmers manage climate risks in production. Although these tools are intimately related, work has not been done to formalize the connections between them. We investigate the relationship between the tools through a model of input choice under uncertainty, forecasts, and insurance. While it is possible for forecasts to undermine insurance, we find that when contracts are appropriately designed, there are important synergies between forecasts, insurance, and effective input use. Used together, these tools overcome barriers preventing the use of imperfect information in production decision making.
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