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The purpose of this study was to examine transitions in smoking from adolescence into emerging adulthood and to identify factors that might influence these transitions, specifically, movement into and out of light and intermittent smoking.

This study used Markov models to examine movement across three stages of smoking (nonsmoking, light and intermittent smoking, and heavy smoking) from adolescence into emerging adulthood. Biannual data were collected from 990 young men and women from the 12th grade until 2 years after high school.

At each timepoint, most youth were nonsmokers. Those who were heavy smokers in 12th grade had a 79% chance of also being heavy smokers 2 years after high school. Between 17% and 21% of participants were light and intermittent smokers at each timepoint, and the likelihood of …