Authors
AD Akbari, M Osanloo, MA Shirazi
Publication date
2007
Journal
16th MPES
Pages
1-12
Description
As the life of mining projects, normally are more than 10 years, accomplishing of any mining activities depends on having a good prediction about the future metal price. This research carried out stationary tests on the copper price time series as an example of metal prices by autocorrelation function and unit-root tests. The results showed that the copper price time series is a non-stationary time series. Then the predicted copper prices by trend analysis shows large deviations from the actual market data, as it can be expected from a non-stationary time series. This fact can be interpreted as the price uncertainty. In the condition of metal price uncertainty, it's needed to have a methodology for making decision that run or not to run and on what condition run the project. This Research focuses on Real Option Approach (ROA) as suitable decision making method in the condition of uncertainty. This method mostly has been used in oil industry by now. The concept of real option theory and its usages for making decision in uncertain situations was studied in this paper and a comparative approach carried out in order to facilitate the utilization of real option theory in mining. Also a conceptual example was presented in order to show how a mine planer can use real option theory in the mine planning process.
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