Authors
Gareth-Rhys Jones, Mathew Lyons, Nikolas Plevris, Philip W Jenkinson, Cathy Bisset, Christopher Burgess, Shahida Din, James Fulforth, Paul Henderson, Gwo-Tzer Ho, Kathryn Kirkwood, Colin Noble, Alan G Shand, David C Wilson, Ian DR Arnott, Charlie W Lees
Publication date
2019/11/1
Journal
Gut
Volume
68
Issue
11
Pages
1953-1960
Publisher
BMJ Publishing Group
Description
Objective
IBD prevalence is estimated to be rising, but no detailed, recent UK data are available. The last reported prevalence estimate in the UK was 0.40% in 2003. We aimed to establish the current, and project future, prevalence in Lothian, Scotland.
Design
We conducted an all-age multiparameter search strategy using inpatient IBD international classification of disease (ICD-10) coding (K50/51)(1997–2018), IBD pathology coding (1990–2018), primary and secondary care prescribing data (2009–2018) and a paediatric registry, (1997–2018) to identify ‘possible’ IBD cases up to 31/08/2018. Diagnoses were manually confirmed through electronic health record review as per Lennard-Jones/Porto criteria. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression was applied to forecast prevalence to 01/08/2028.
Results
In total, 24 601 possible IBD cases were identified of which 10 499 were true positives …
Scholar articles
GR Jones, M Lyons, N Plevris, PW Jenkinson, C Bisset… - Gut, 2019