Authors
Philippe Andrade, Richard K Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Emanuel Moench
Publication date
2016/10/1
Journal
Journal of Monetary Economics
Volume
83
Pages
106-128
Publisher
North-Holland
Description
We document a novel set of facts about disagreement among professional forecasters: (1) forecasters disagree at all horizons, including the long run; (2) the term structure of disagreement is downward sloping for real output growth, relatively flat for inflation, and upward sloping for the federal funds rate; (3) disagreement is time varying at all horizons. We propose a generalized model of imperfect information that can jointly explain these facts. We further use the term structure of disagreement to show that the monetary policy rule perceived by professional forecasters features a high degree of interest-rate smoothing and time variation in the intercept.
Total citations
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Scholar articles
P Andrade, RK Crump, S Eusepi, E Moench - Journal of Monetary Economics, 2016