Authors
Stefano Eusepi, Bruce Preston
Publication date
2018/9/1
Journal
American Economic Review
Volume
108
Issue
9
Pages
2551-2589
Publisher
American Economic Association
Description
This paper proposes a theory of the fiscal foundations of inflation based on imperfect knowledge and learning. Because imperfect knowledge breaks Ricardian equivalence, the scale and composition of the public debt matter for inflation. High and moderate duration debt generates wealth effects on consumption demand that impairs the intertemporal substitution channel of monetary policy: aggressive monetary policy is required to anchor inflation expectations. Counterfactual experiments conducted in an estimated model reveal that the US economy would have been substantially more volatile over the Great Inflation and Great Moderation periods if US debt levels had been those observed in Italy or Japan. (JEL D84, E31, E32, E52, E62, H63)
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