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Solar irradiance forecasting can reduce the uncertainty of solar power plant output caused by solar irradiance intermittency. Concentrated solar thermal (CST) plants generate electricity from the direct normal irradiance (DNI) component of solar irradiance. Different forecasting methods have been recommended for a range of forecast horizons relevant to electricity generation. High DNI forecast accuracy is important for achieving accurate forecasts of CST plant output which are shown to increase CST plant profitability. This paper reviews the DNI forecast accuracy of numerical weather prediction models, time series analysis methods, cloud motion vectors, and hybrid methods. The results of the reviewed papers are summarised to identify the best DNI forecast accuracy for particular forecast horizons. The application of DNI forecasts to operate CST plants is also briefly reviewed.

This paper found that additional …