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To examine the contribution of social-cognitive factors (self-efficacy and affect) in predicting long-term physical activity in a sample of older adults (N= 174). A prospective design assessed physical activity and psychosocial variables at 2 and 5 years following a 6-month randomized, controlled exercise trial. The primary outcome variable was self-reported physical activity, with previous behavior, self-efficacy, and affect assessed as determinants of physical activity. Covariance modeling analyses indicated that physical activity at Year 2 was the strongest predictor of physical activity at 5-year follow-up. Both self-efficacy and affect at Year 2 were also associated with physical activity at Year 5, as was original treatment condition. Variables accounted for 35% of the variance in Year 5 activity. Older adults with higher levels of physical activity, more positive …