Authors
Daniela Jacob, Lars Bärring, Ole Bøssing Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Manuel de Castro, Michel Déqué, Filippo Giorgi, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Hirschi, Richard Jones, Erik Kjellström, Geert Lenderink, Burkhardt Rockel, Enrique Sánchez, Christoph Schär, Sonia I Seneviratne, Samuel Somot, Aad van Ulden, Bart van den Hurk
Publication date
2007/5
Journal
Climatic change
Volume
81
Pages
31-52
Publisher
Springer Netherlands
Description
The analysis of possible regional climate changes over Europe as simulated by 10 regional climate models within the context of PRUDENCE requires a careful investigation of possible systematic biases in the models. The purpose of this paper is to identify how the main model systematic biases vary across the different models. Two fundamental aspects of model validation are addressed here: the ability to simulate (1) the long-term (30 or 40 years) mean climate and (2) the inter-annual variability. The analysis concentrates on near-surface air temperature and precipitation over land and focuses mainly on winter and summer. In general, there is a warm bias with respect to the CRU data set in these extreme seasons and a tendency to cold biases in the transition seasons. In winter the typical spread (standard deviation) between the models is 1 K. During summer there is generally a better agreement …
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