View article

Game theory can provide valuable insights into strategic water resources conflicts. In this chapter, non-cooperative game theory solution concepts are used to determine the possible outcomes of the Nile River Basin conflict. This conflict is the result of the desire of the main riparian countries, namely Egypt, Sudan, Ethiopia, and other upstream nations, to gain a higher share from the available water resources in the basin. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution decision support system (GMCR II) is used to model the conflict, providing strategic insights, and identifying the stable outcomes of the game, given the players options and preferences. Results suggest that: 1) stability of the possible outcome is very sensitive to Egypt’s preferences, and not very sensitive to Sudan’s and Ethiopia’s preferences; 2) the status-quo is not stable; and 3) any stable outcome includes retaliation by Egypt.