Authors
Claudio EV Borio, Marco Lombardi, James Yetman, Egon Zakrajšek
Publication date
2023/3/20
Publisher
BIS, Bank for International Settlements
Description
This study provides a view of the inflation process that is complementary to the one captured in standard models, such as those based on the Phillips curve. It char acterises the process as two regimes–a low-and a high-inflation regime–with self-reinforcing transitions from the low-to the high-inflation one. The study documents the stylised facts describing the two regimes and the transitions between them based on disaggregated price dynamics and the joint behaviour of wages and prices. Two implications for monetary policy stand out. First, the desirability of cond ucting monetary policy in a flexible manner in a low-inflation regime, tolerating moderate, even if persistent, deviations from narrowly defined targets. Second, the importance of being pre-emptive when the risk of a transition to the high-inflation regime increases, even though assessing this transition in real time remains challenging.
Total citations
Scholar articles
CEV Borio, M Lombardi, J Yetman, E Zakrajšek - 2023