Authors
AGT Schut, DJ Stephens, RGH Stovold, M Adams, RL Craig
Publication date
2009/1/5
Journal
Crop and Pasture Science
Volume
60
Issue
1
Pages
60-70
Publisher
CSIRO PUBLISHING
Description
The objective of this study was to improve the current wheat yield and production forecasting system for Western Australia on a LGA basis. PLS regression models including temporal NDVI data from AVHRR and/or MODIS, CR, and/or SI, calculated with the STIN, were developed. Census and survey wheat yield data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics were combined with questionnaire data to construct a full time-series for the years 1991–2005. The accuracy of fortnightly in-season forecasts was evaluated with a leave-year-out procedure from Week 32 onwards. The best model had a mean relative prediction error per LGA (RE) of 10% for yield and 15% for production, compared with RE of 13% for yield and 18% for production for the model based on SI only. For yield there was a decrease in RMSE from below 0.5 t/ha to below 0.3 t/ha in all years. The best multivariate model also had the added feature of …
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AGT Schut, DJ Stephens, RGH Stovold, M Adams… - Crop and Pasture Science, 2009