View article

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM _2.5) are associated with premature human mortality^,,,; their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term, and on climate change^,. Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change^, used single atmospheric models. However, in related studies, mortality results differ among models^,,. Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry–climate models to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. ), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (−30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relative to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (−195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM _2.5, we estimate 55,600 (−34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 …