Authors
Carsten F Dormann, Justin M Calabrese, Gurutzeta Guillera‐Arroita, Eleni Matechou, Volker Bahn, Kamil Bartoń, Colin M Beale, Simone Ciuti, Jane Elith, Katharina Gerstner, Jérôme Guelat, Petr Keil, José J Lahoz‐Monfort, Laura J Pollock, Björn Reineking, David R Roberts, Boris Schröder, Wilfried Thuiller, David I Warton, Brendan A Wintle, Simon N Wood, Rafael O Wüest, Florian Hartig
Publication date
2018/11
Source
Ecological monographs
Volume
88
Issue
4
Pages
485-504
Description
In ecology, the true causal structure for a given problem is often not known, and several plausible models and thus model predictions exist. It has been claimed that using weighted averages of these models can reduce prediction error, as well as better reflect model selection uncertainty. These claims, however, are often demonstrated by isolated examples. Analysts must better understand under which conditions model averaging can improve predictions and their uncertainty estimates. Moreover, a large range of different model averaging methods exists, raising the question of how they differ in their behaviour and performance. Here, we review the mathematical foundations of model averaging along with the diversity of approaches available. We explain that the error in model‐averaged predictions depends on each model's predictive bias and variance, as well as the covariance in predictions between models, and …
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