Authors
António Afonso, José Carlos Coelho
Publication date
2023/3/1
Journal
Economic Analysis and Policy
Volume
77
Pages
642-657
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
We assess public finances solvency for Euro Area countries, using quarterly data from 1999Q1 to 2020Q4. For most countries: (i) the primary budget balance reacts positively to the lagged debt-to-GDP ratio and past primary budget balances contribute to the reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio, indicating a Ricardian fiscal regime. In the country-by-country analysis, we confirm (ii) the ”elusive character of fiscal sustainability” (Afonso and Jalles, 2016). Furthermore, in a panel framework: (iii) the response of revenues to government expenditures is higher from 2010 onwards, whereas the response is lower for higher average debt-to-GDP ratios; (iv) the response of the primary budget balance to the lagged debt-to-GDP ratio is lower from 2010 onwards and is higher for higher average debt-to-GDP ratios; (v) past primary budget balances enable the reduction of the debt-to-GDP ratio, especially before 2010 and also in …
Total citations
Scholar articles
A Afonso, JC Coelho - Economic Analysis and Policy, 2023