Authors
Joseph B Courtney, Sébastien Langlade, Stephen Barlow, Thomas Birchard, John A Knaff, SD Kotal, Tarik Kriat, Woojeong Lee, Richard Pasch, Charles R Sampson, Udai Shimada, Amit Singh
Publication date
2019/12/1
Source
Tropical Cyclone Research and Review
Volume
8
Issue
4
Pages
226-239
Publisher
Elsevier
Description
This review summarizes experiences at operational centers to forecast tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change as presented to the International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-9) in Hawaii in 2018. Some operational forecast centers have been able to leverage advances in intensity guidance to increase forecast skill, albeit incrementally, while others have struggled to make any significant improvements. Rapid intensity changes continue to present major challenges to operational centers and individual difficult cases illustrate the forecasting challenges. It is noteworthy that the realization of a recommendation from IWTC-8 in 2014, to adapt guidance initially developed for the North Atlantic and North-East Pacific to other basins, has led to improved forecast skill of some agencies. Recent worldwide difficult cases are presented so that the research community can further investigate, potentially leading to …
Total citations
2019202020212022202313434
Scholar articles
JB Courtney, S Langlade, S Barlow, T Birchard… - Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, 2019