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Student sense of belonging is a current challenge to higher education providers, with consistently declining ratings in national surveys. For universities globally, this is a concern linked to student attrition, student satisfaction, and student success. Importantly, low sense of belonging is typically associated with non-traditional learners, and building strategies to solve this challenge is essential for institutions to build equitable learning environments. This study seeks to understand the causal factors that predict when a student will belong using longitudinal data. Using the Australian national student experience survey data (n = 1,159,768 undergraduate and postgraduate students between 2013 and 2019), this study examines the predictors of a sense of belonging testing the accuracy of four machine learning models. The findings indicate overall educational experience, connection to students outside of class, and …