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We present an experimental study of jamming in the discharge of grains through an opening in a two-dimensional silo. For a wide range of outlet sizes, we obtain the size distribution of avalanche defined as the number of grains that fall between two consecutive jams. From these distributions, we obtain the probability that the silo jams before N particles pass through the orifice. Then a simple model of arch formation is proposed that predicts the shape of the jamming probability function and reveals that it does not exist a critical size of the orifice above which there is not jamming.