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Conventional theories of economic development (cf. Rostow, Lewis,‘balanced growth’theories) argue that national economies move through stages involving a shift from agrarian to industrial production, a shift involving structural change in the economy, capabilityaccumulation and changes in markets and patterns of consumption. Typically development implies growing resource-intensity of economies early in the process of development, with major environmental impacts. Development in emerging Asian countries appears to be following this pattern and is thereby influencing the global demand for resources and generating major impacts on local, regional and global environments, including the global climate.

A key question for the global environmental change research community is whether industrial, economic and social transformations now underway in Asian countries will follow conventional trajectories, or whether more resource-efficient and sustainable development pathways may be possible. Investment patterns, government policies, the diffusion of new technologies, infrastructure development, urban planning and consumer behaviours would all play important roles in opening these pathways.