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Hooker Glacier in the central Southern Alps of New Zealand has undergone significant downwasting and recession (∼2.14 km) during the last two centuries. High retreat rates (51 m a⁻¹ 1986–2001, 43 m a⁻¹ 2001–2011) have produced a large (1.22 km²) proglacial lake. We present a retreat scenario for Hooker Glacier. A retreat scenario predicts that the glacier terminus will stabilise >3 km up‐valley of the current lake outlet after 2028 when ice velocity equals calving rate.