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The critically endangered Brazilian pine, also called araucaria, (Araucaria angustifolia (Bertol.) Kuntze) is a key species of the Araucaria moist forest (AMF, Mixed Ombrophilous Forest). Illegal timber extraction, agricultural conversion and severe degradation have reduced the AMF to only 13 per cent of its original cover, with climate change imposing additional challenges for cold adapted species such as araucaria. Previous studies have assessed climate change impacts on A. angustifolia, but have been limited by analysis constraints. Here, we used a machine learning technique to understand how land use and climate change might affect the distribution of A. angustifolia, and to evaluate the effectiveness of existing protected areas (PAs) to conserve this species. Our results demonstrated that despite the recent efforts to conserve the Atlantic Forest, conversion of natural habitats into forest plantation still …